How can analysis of events from the past inform our current decision-making? video transcript

[Lewis Allsopp]  
Hello and welcome this is ‘For a Better Tomorrow’ - the University of Derby's Innovation and research podcast. I'm Lewis Allsopp and in every episode, I chat with someone in academia about what they're working on and how it will make our lives better. Now in previous episodes, I've spoken to researchers answering questions like how we can use computers to help us understand the world and how mirrors are helping us to make solar energy more efficient.  But today I want to talk history, although I don't really. You see one of the ways that we can try and make society better in the here and now is actually by looking back through the archives to understand events of the past and today. I want to talk about just that. How can analysis of events from the past inform our current decision-making? Well to help me find out I'm joined by Professor Keith McLay who is Provost of Learning and teaching here at the University of Derby, as well as being a historian. It's lovely to see you I mean before we get into all of that just tell me a bit about you first of all.

[Keith McLay] 
My name is Professor Keith McLay, I'm the Provost Learning and Teaching at the University of Derby, which is quite an odd title in many respects, um when you say Provost not many people know what that is or what that means and I'm not necessarily sure I do but in reality what it means is that in terms of the universities learning and teaching, its curricular, its academic offer, I'm the University's Executive member who has responsibility for that across the institutions. So I work with the colleges, I work with the program teams in respect of the degrees that we offer here at the University of Derby, and the learning and teaching which it delivers those degree programs.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
History, how did you get into it?

[Keith McLay] 
I just was fascinated by it at school. History is marvellous for and providing that illustrative example to help one understand the modern world at the most broadest level or at the micro level as well and history is wonderful for that and cast the characters, you can analyze, what you can study, the phenomena that are part of history as well. All are educational and teachers and there's nothing better than you know, I just love it, I love history and that's why I, you know, I became an academic, got into teaching it and I still even though um I have this title Provost and there's a leadership role there, I have always throughout my career maintained both my teaching commitments so I deliver a level four module with a colleague still, um and keep the research not a very very high level or a high tempo because I have other things to do but to keep working on it as well.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
We're talking about innovation and research a very important part of what the university does obviously. And you've got something to talk about today haven't you?

[Keith McLay] 
Yeah that's right, I mean, what I wanted to talk about in terms of my own research is I'm working on the Jacobites, at the moment. Now the Jacobites for those that maybe are not familiar with them, was a group of individuals within the Isles of Britain in the 18th century primarily. They were adherents of the King James the 7th and 2nd who was effectively evicted from the throne in 1688 from Britain, and they were a group of individuals that wanted to see the Stewart house restored to the Thrones of the British Isles. Um and they mounted a series of rebellions periodically through the first half of the 18th century, so the initial one was just at the end of the 17th and 1689 then we had one in 1706, 1708 and then we had a big one in 1715 and an even bigger one in 1745. And the one that I'm I'm looking at the moment is that one in 1745 because the Stuart adherence started off in Scotland led by Bonnie Prince Charlie who was the grandson of James VII and II and they marched all the way to Derby they started off in The Western Isles of Scotland and they managed to march all the way down to Derby. And it was at Derby in December as 1745 that they actually decided to turn around and retreat back to Scotland and it's that decision and that command decision which I think it is interesting me at the moment and it's interesting me at one level because it's a historical question and I'm a historian so I'm interested in historical questions. But it's also interesting because there's an application on that piece of research which is in terms of leadership, how do we arrive at significant decisions, be they political, be the military, be they Civil, how do we arrive at that type of decision which can have such a consequential impact upon the subsequent events because the decision to retreat, in the 5th of December 1745 and returned to Scotland was absolutely seminal in terms of the ill-fated success of the Rebellion ultimately. And so that has a modern application which I'm interested in as well.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
Yeah, it is it's a wider question like you say just about leadership and how are you going to find this out because we can't ask anybody?

[Keith McLay] 
No that's right of course so so historian's methods of research are primarily two-fold so there's a body of secondary literature works by historians already or on a topic that you would access and you'd read and you'd think about but most importantly for historians, it's the surviving documentary record or archival sources that you would go to piece together that in this instance the decision-making process. So in other words, I'm looking at correspondence I'm looking at diaries and memoirs and trying to understand through reading them and triangulating different pieces of evidence, how that leadership decision came about.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
You're looking into this one decision it's a very specific time in history. What have you found so far, have you found anything about the reason behind that one decision?

[Keith McLay] 
Yes, what I found or what my analysis has been is that to date that decision on the 5th of December, in the war council of the Jacobites in Derby, was primarily characterised as being a purely military decision, in other words historians have said hitherto Bonnie Prince Charlie and his fellow generals decided to retreat to Scotland because there were three columns of the British army converging on Derby from the north and from the south and from the south-west. So therefore militarily they were never going to be successful in fighting through to London.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
So this is where the big sort of explosion was going to be wasn’t it?

[Keith McLay] 
Yeah, that's right, but my argument is that that was but one element, the military element was but one facet of the decision. What we need to do is to broaden it out to look at other elements of the decision. So there were political considerations within the war council themselves. So the war council was divided between Bonnie Prince Charlie's advisors who had come from Ireland and his advisors who had come from Scotland. Those that had come from Scotland, were much more inclined to make good the gains that they had achieved in Scotland already by retreating back to Scotland and holding that position. The Irish contingent were much more enthusiastic to go all the way to London because for them that was the bigger prize.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
So, was there a bit of a fallout?  

[Keith McLay] 
Absolutely yeah there was a fraction and internecine fighting within the war council which was politically founded. There was a wider context of support for the Jacobites within Great Britain at the time, that there was the assumption that because the Jacobites had got to Derby, that clearly they had more support than actually they did. And by the time they got to Derby, it became increasingly apparent that people were not turning out for the Jacobites. So they had marched all the way down from Scotland through the northwest of England then turned eastwards to Derby but they hadn't raised many men on their travels, they had been successful in their march they hadn't been opposed, but they hadn't brought many people along with them. So fundamentally another element of the decision was their support was thin.

[Lewis Allsopp] 
Thinner than they expected?

[Keith McLay]  
Indeed, absolutely. And if they were going to march on to London then they're going to have they're going to have to need more support than they had accrued already. And then the third element in broadening out is a diplomatic context. When Bonnie Prince Charlie left the continent of Europe to come across to Scotland in 17 and late 1744, there was the assumption that France in particular, but also the Vatican and to an extent Spain, would provide some circa, some support for the Jacobite rebellion particularly France and indeed uh Bonnie Prince Charlie's brother Henry was in France at the time in 45, seeking to bring together support. That support never materialized and by the time they reached Derby in December 45, it was increasingly clear that the international context was not going to come through for them so that was another element in the decision-making. So hopefully the research is beginning to demonstrate that where before a decision was characterized as one of purely military considerations that will never be successful in fighting through, is now one actually which is much broader and has a number of contributory elements to it.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
It was interesting you were speaking about earlier how this can help us in life today in understanding the way that decisions are made and understanding how decisions should be made because that's I suppose a really important part of our life politically, is very important isn't it?

[Keith McLay] 
Yeah, so yes I absolutely agree. You're quite right and I suppose what I'm trying to show and in the modern context so I talked about the applied nature of this work and the applied nature is current contemporary leadership decision-making. I think first of all what I would say is that there needs to be a recognition that in any such decision-making process, particularly one that is of significant size and scale, there are a number of what we would call heuristics or biases at work. In the Jacobite example we've talked about the political context well that was a bias that they had that was feeding through so likewise in any contemporary decision you to recognize that the parties to that decision have a number of ingrained biases and prejudices that are coming to the fore.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
And we say this all the time in politics, in lots of different decisions people often are biased by the way that they've grown up the way, that they've lived their life, the people that they owe money to. You know, I mean there's lots of different things that can affect our decision making aren't there?

[Keith McLay] 
Oh absolutely, you're absolutely correct there Lewis. And by applying that research, by using the historical example we can shed light upon the processes of the contemporary world in terms of leadership arriving at decisions and demonstrating that any decision is much more broadly based than how one might like to characterize that. One might like to see oh well that was that decision was taken because of X and only X, and that that's unlikely to be the case and we can use the historical example to illustrate that.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
How does this help us now? So on this understanding which is really genuinely very interesting, the way that we make decisions. But how does it help us in our lives now to understand that this is the way decisions are made?

[Keith McLay]  
Well I mean, that's a very good question and I think my answer to that was it's important that leaders, you know across the across country, across the world, anyone in a leadership position has a better knowledge and understanding of how they arrive at decisions and decision making and command in in that context. Now they might not want to particularly know that, they might not want to know that they bring prejudices and bias to the table, but they do need to understand that.

[Lewis Allsopp] 
Because I suppose it's a matter of understanding that we've all got them, we've all got prejudices, we've all got biases but it's a matter of understanding when to lead them to the side, or as best we can, when not to.  
Just finally speaking about leadership once again, if I were to want to be Prime Minister yeah what advice would you give me? Given the research that you've done?

[Keith McLay] 
Okay, um understand your prejudices, understand your biases and understand people. And ensure that when you are taking a decision in any step, you have a broader base as possible in terms of knowledge of the issue that you're seeking to take a decision on before you take that decision.  

[Lewis Allsopp] 
I think I might get my name on the ballot paper now, thank you. Thank you very much for talking to me.  

[Keith McLay] 
Thank you very much, Lewis, that was great thank you. 

[Lewis Allsopp] 
That is Professor Keith McLay, Provost of Learning and Teaching at the University of Derby and a historian. 
And that is it for this episode of ‘For a better tomorrow’ - the University of Derby's Innovation and research podcast. Now in other episodes in the series, I've looked at the research answering questions like why research itself is so important to the University of Derby, and how can proteins help combat the onset of Alzheimer's. They're available now so be sure to check them out wherever you get your podcasts and follow the University @Derbyuni. I'll see you next time, bye-bye. 

For a better tomorrow was presented by me, Lewis Allsopp and produced by myself and Dr Daithí McMahon in the School of Arts for the University of Derby. 

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