Are we too many? Population & Resource Debate
Population & Resources IssuesPopulation and resource issues constitute the most important topic of debate by demographers, geographers, economists, environmentalists and policy makers all through the ages. Concern over population growth rates began with the population expansion in Europe in the 18th century. From the time Thomas Malthus (1776-1834) first suggested there was a natural law of population growth in which food production increases only linearly (i.e., 1,2,3,4,5,...etc) and population rises exponentially (i.e., 1,2,4, 8, 16, 32,... etc.), a major debate was started as to whether the earth's resources can support and sustain the ever growing number of humans. In the light of the rising increase in world population during the last decade and against the backdrop of the growing poverty in the developing world, that debate is being revisited.
The Population Reference Bureau estimates put the current world population at 6,396,000,000 with this figure likely to climb to 9.3 billion by mid-century. An average of 5 babies are born every second and a million people are
added to the world’s population every day. Population Growth & North-South Demographic Divide An important feature of the world's demographic trend is the uneven pace of population growth between the economically rich nations in the North and the poor countries mostly located in the South. Official statistics suggest almost 99% of the population increase occur in the developing world. Africa and Asia will account for 90% of the projected world population by 2050. While the projected population increase in the developed nations by 2050 is only 4%, the developing world is expected to expand its population by 55% during the same period. Currently, six out of the 10 largest nations, excluding China, are in the developing world. By 2050, as many as 9 out of the world's most populous countries will be in the developing world. Demographic contrasts High growth rates and youthful population are part of the demographic
characteristics of the Less Developed Countries (LDCs). For example,
out of 25 million Kenyans, over half (59%) are under the age of 20.
In contrast, in the developed world, relatively low proportions of youth
and high proportions of older people are the key factors underlying
the static or declining numbers. For example, in the United Kingdom,
people aged 60 and over form a larger part of the population (21%) than
children under 16 (20%). Single-pensioner households make up 14.4 per
cent of all households in the UK. At present, 16% of the population
of western Europe is over 65 and by 2050, that percentage will be 30.. Different Challenges The variations in demographic characteristics between the economically developed and the developing nations present different challenges and problems. Developing nations have to find the resources to feed, clothe and educate its growing youthful population. Necessay schemes need to be developed to provide training and skills required to generate employment that can guarantee decent standards of living for their growing population. The developed nations need to take care of more and more retired people and provide services required by the growing number of its elderly population and at the same time maintain an adequate workforce. Many people are beginning to fear their old age state pension is under attack as some nations are now facing pension crisis and rising costs of welfare for their elderly population. In both sides of the globe, based on the constraints of resources, the future seems uncertain. However, while the developed world may be able to accommodate high increase in population growth with little or no major effects on standards of living, the developed world are least able to support its current population, let alone, the projected increases. The population-resource dilemma now facing the world's poorest nations has resulted in the rekindling of interests in the old population-resource debate. And the questions being asked now are: 1. Are we, simply, too many? 2. Can the current rates of world population growth be sustained, given the enormous amount of resources required to sustain a decent standard of living? 3. How will the developing world survive an ever growing increase in numbers while poverty and general lack of access to economic opportunities continue to plague its population?
Definition of key terms In order to understand the population and resource isssue, a number of key concepts need to be explained. ‘Population bomb’: Population ‘explosion’ characterised by a sudden and rapid increase in the number of people living in an area. This may be as a result of an increased birth rate or a decline in mortality. ‘Over-population’: ‘Under-population’: ‘Optimum population’: ‘Fertility gap’: ‘Finite resources’: ‘Population distribution’: .
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Population & Resources: The Malthusian Perspective Thomas Malthus (1776-1834)- Clergyman, Demographer and Economist Malthus suggested that a number of 'checks' would serve to keep the population at a level of subsistence (i.e., food supply ceiling). These, are the 'prentive checks' and the 'positive checks'. The key preventive check postulated by Malthus was one of 'moral restraint'. Men should attempt to marry late in life as this would give rise to fewer or smaller families.The positive check, according to Malthus, "... include every cause ... which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration of human life". These are diverse and range from poor living and working conditions that might lower resistance to disease, as well as disease itself, wars and famines. Malthus's pessimistic view of population suggests that human suffering and misery is inevitable, essentially due to population levels outstripping food availability. Malthus believe the main cause of high population growth rates lies in the fast breeding of the lower classes that need to adhere to a preventive check. Neo-Malthusianism One of the most commonly held views in contemporary thinking on population is Neo- Malthusianism as derived from the arguments of Malthus. The Neo-Malthusians' view follows the thinking of Malthus in that population growth is considered the main cause of poverty. However, unlike Malthus, they see birth control as a means of checking this growth. Not only do Neo-Malthusians believe that a reduction in population will reduce social problems and alleviate human sufferening, but they also see such steps leading to economic growth and improvements in living conditions. An essential feature of the Neo-Malthusian argument, therefore, is the belief that the size of the population is the main cause of restraints to development, particularly in the less developed countries and that high population growth leads to high natural resource depletion and causes environmental degradation. This demographic derministic view of poverty underlie most
debate and discussions on population since the 1960s. It is the 'people
versus resources' viewpoint held by many academics, demographers and commentators
who all believe that there are too many people for the available resources.
The beginning of the report on the US president’s 1972 Commission
on Population Growth and the American future reads; Neo-Malthusians see the rapid rates of population growth in the Third World resulting in widespread poverty, economic stagnation, environmental destruction, rapid urbanisation, unemployment and political instability. Like Malthus, the Neo-Malthusians see the problem resting with the poor who produce more children, bacause of their ignorance and lack of foresight. The solution, therefore, lies in persuading (or forcing if needs be) the poor to have fewer children. It is against this background that the implementation and promotion of family planning programmes by international development agencies gained popularity as an efficient and cost-effective way to tackle the problems of development. Global Response to
the impending 'doom' In the 1970s, so great was the concern over the world's population expansion that a World Population Conference was held in Bucharest (1974), in which 136 countries agreed to a World Population Plan of Action. This plan highlighted the need "...to introduce family planning programmes and to reduce rates of population growth in order to conserve resources and improve standards of living", particularly in the less developed countries (Findlay and Findlay 1987). Ever since the Bucharest conference, the link between population
growth and development has become even more direct. In 1994, there was
an International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo which
aimed at "linking population more effectively to core development
agendas". Evidence of Malthus and Neo-Malthusian predictions Neo-Malthusians would argue that the recurrent famines in countries such as Ethiopia and Somalia is proof of a positive check on population growth. Problems with the demographic deterministic view of poverty - What the critics say Critics of Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian perspective on population have argued that the demographic deterministic view of poverty is fundamentally flawed. First, Neo-Malthusian arguments divert attention from the social and economic causes of poverty. Like Malthus, they simply blame human reproduction. The structure of underdevelopment is ignored, with the reproductive customs of Third World people considered the main cause of their poverty. Second, some critics argue that for those who saw the lower classes as a burden to society, Malthus and Neo-Malthusian view provides a perfect excuse not to improve their living conditions. They maintain that it is the failure of successive development strategies to bring about any appreciable improvement in the living conditions of the majority of the people of the world that needs to be discussed and not the productive habits of the poor. Third, contrary to Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian predictions, world food production has increased more rapidly than that of population. In late 1990s, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) food production forecast for 2000 was "... that at a global level there should be no problem in expanding production further to meet the needs of the 6.3 billion people who are expected to be alive in the year 2000" (Sarre and Blunden 1991, p.20). The fact that many countries have stockpiles suggest that it is the distribution of food resources, rather than a lack of, that is the key issue. Fourth, many developing nations are now challenging the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian perspectives on population and reclaiming their right to identify for themselves what they perceived their particular population problems are and how to resolve them without pressure from external agencies. Fifth, there is a growing realisation amongst development experts that population growth is NOT the cause of the development problems of the Third World, but rather a symtom of the problems. New understanding and explanation of fertility rates in economically poor communities suggests that poor people may have many children for logical reasons, such as their economic value, and not just because they are backward looking. Sixth, both Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian views on population in relation to development are ethnocentric in nature. They both, implicitly, evaluate the reproductive behaviour of people in the Third World by criteria specific to westen Euoropeans. When the rich nations suffer economic difficulties such as rising unemployment, these are treated as purely economic issues. However, when a developing country experiences obstacles to economic growth, then population pressure is often cited as the cause.
Using the resource materials on this
and any other sources available to you, attempt a classroom exercise involving
your students to discuss the population and resources issue. As a guide,
please click here for a free download of 'Task
Sheet - Population versus Resource' containing a number of
suggested exercises. Note: The task sheet file is in pdf format.
Summary of population-resource debate: Conservative Vs Radical Theorists
Final Remarks The Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian view has dominated academic discussion and debate on population since the early 1800s. Their perspective on population and resources has had a profound effect on the way population policy is formulated, especially in the developing world. It has helped in the formulation and implementation of family planning programmes and helped highlight concern over development problems. However, the Neo-Malthusian approach which essentially argues for direct population control measures alongside development policies is fraught with many difficulties. Not only does it divert academic attention away from arguably the most fundamental causes of poverty in the Third World, it also ignores the unequal distribution of global resources. At best, it fails to address the excesssive pattern of resource consumption and waste by the 20% of the world's population who consume 80% of the earth's resources and instead blame the poor for being poor and for having large families. Although new views on population are emerging, many development agencies still pursue top down programmes that focus on reducing fertility rates as a development policy. While there is no doubt that Malthus and the Neo-Malthusians deserve recognition as landmark figures in demography with the basis of their theory on population growth still very much influential in contemporary population debate, it is eroneous to suggest that population expansion is the main cause of poverty in the Third World. It is an ethnocentric perspective that seems to blame the poor for being poor while ignoring the role of the rich nations in the North for the underdevelopment of the poor countries in the South. Perhaps the question we ought to ask ourselves is NOT - Are we too many? BUT Are we too greedy?
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Alternative Views: Ester Boserup's Hypothesis Ester Boserup - a Danish Economists offerred an entirely different view on population resource debate. In her book 'The Conditions of Agricultural Growth' published in 1965, Boserup took an empirical approach to the relationship between population growth and food production rather than Malthus's deductive approach (i.e, reasoned by calculations). Unlike Malthus, she believes that population growth is a major factor determining agricultural developments. According to her, 'population growth stimulates innovation and development in agriculture' thus causing an increase in food production.. This is summed up by the following phrase '...Necessity is the mother of invention'. This suggests that an increase in population provides a major incentive for ways to be found to increase food production. Boserup's Main Argument Boserup's main argument can be summarised as follows: The conclusion from Boserup's hypothesis is that population growth naturally leads to developmet rather than being a hinderance to it. Boserup's idea is based upon field studies in SE Asia and she developed her idea under a number of assumptions. Critics of Ester Boserup's Hypothesis Boserup's idea has been criticised for having a rather weak economic basis. Some critics have suggested her idea applies only to the agricultural production of mainly the developing world where the number of people and area could support depends on agricultural techniques. As an area becomes more industraialised and developed, conditions of inadequate food production are much more likely to result in out-migration rather than agricultural innovation. Her theory, according to some critics, fails to discuss the most recent technological innovations in the highly industrailised societies. Also critics have argue, her idea lacks any universal appeal because it is based on the assumption of an unsophisticated economies and 'closed' communities. In reality, communities are not closed instead, there is constant in- and out-migration. Relatively few communities, if any, operate closed systems producing food only to meet their own requirements. So it is generally difficult to test her ideas. Boserup's hypothesis gives no consideration to the qualitative aspects of diet and nutrition.Through the changes in agricultural techniques suggested by Boserup, it is possible that output may increase but the overall quality of diet ant nutrition may decline. Another criticism of Boserup's hypothesis relates to the time that the agricultural adaptation would take place. The innovation in agriculture cannot be pressumed to occur immediately. If the population growth is rapid, it may overwhelm the agricultural system in the process of adjustment such that the necessary adjustments do not have time to occur. It is clear that certain types of fragile environment cannot support excessive numbers of people. In such cases, population pressure may not lead to technological innovation as Boserup suggested. Boserup herself admits that over-population can lead to unsuitable farming practices which may degrade the land. And she also recognises that in certain physical environments, continuing intensification of production may not be possible with rising population pressures. In spite of the limimitations of her theory, Boserup's hypothesis offers an alternative view to the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian perspective on population versus resources debate. In spite of Boserup's hypothesis, two major food problems persist in the world today - massive surpluses in the developed world and famine, starvation and shortage in the developing world. It appears, therefore that it is not the level of resources which is the main cause of concern but the inability to share and distribute available resources equitably amongst the world's population.
The 'Ultimate Resource' Theory - Julian Simon Julian
Simon (1932-1997) – a US economist and statistician He believes people are able to innovate to sustain
themselves, and that “the increase in
the world’s population is our victory against death”. In spite of the ‘doom and gloom’ of
the Malthusian theory, Simon suggested the world food production has increased
in both developed and developing countries since the World War II. According
to him, the overall trend from 1948-1979 shows there has been an increase
in food production per person. According to Simon, Simon blames the West for destroying the Third World's farmers despite the assistance they give the Third World in terms of technical shipments of food, by giving subsidies to their own farmers which raise food production artificially and hence reduce the world prices. Simon believes that subsidies to Western farmers
go hand in hand with the policies of African governments which steal from
their farmers by forcing them to accept below market prices. The Marxian Perspective Karl Marx (1818-1883) maintained that poverty and resource depletion is not a consequence of population growth but of unequal distribution of resources between classes. Where ownership of, and control over, resources is confined to a capitalist or land owning class, potential always exists for poverty and hunger. Peasants and working poor have very little bargaining power compared to landlords and capitalists – hence poverty and hunger results. According to Marx, if peasants are driven off their land or workers loose
their employment, they may not have adequate means of subsistence –
there then appears to be a surplus of population in relation to the economic
system. He believes capitalism creates surplus population through: The result is the total reliance on wage-labour by the poor to acquire
means of consumption (food, clothing, shelter, etc.)
Conspiracy Theories There are other theories that consider population growth debate as a
‘red herring’.
References & Guide to Further Reading Allen, T. and Thomas, A. (ed.) (1992): Popverty and Development in the 1990s, OUP, Oxford Barke, M. and O'Hare, G. (1996): The Third World, Conceptual Frameworks in Geography, Second Edition, Oliver and Boyd Boserup, E. (1965): The Conditions of Agricultural Change: the Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure, Allen and Unwin, London. Boserup, E. (1981): Population anf Technology, Basil Blackwell, Oxford Crook, N. (1997): Principles of Population and Development. OUP, Oxford Ehlich, P. R. et al (1970): Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment, W. H. Freeman and Company, San Francisco. Findlay, A. and Findlay A. (1987): Population and Development in the Third World, Routledge, London. Chrispin, J. and Jegede, F. (2000): Population, Resources and Development. Second Edition. Colins Landmark Geography, Collins Educational, London. Population Reference Bureau (2004) World
population Data Sheet. Regan, C (ed.) (2002): 80:20 Development in an Unequal World, Published by 80:20 Educating and Acting for a Better World and Teachers in Development Education Sarre, P. and Blunden, J. (ed) (1991): Environment Population and Development, Hodder and Stoughtton, London. Winch, D. (ed.) (1992): Malthus:An Essay on the Principle of Population, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. World Bank (1994): Development in Practice: Population and Development: Implications for the the World Bank, World Bank Publications, Washington D.C.
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Current
world population stands at 6,396,000,000
The
Editor:
